Half Marathon Prediction Formula:
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This calculator predicts your potential half marathon (21.1 km) time based on your current 5k (5 km) race time. It uses a well-established conversion factor to estimate longer distance performance from shorter race results.
The calculator uses the following formula:
Where:
Explanation: The conversion factor accounts for the increased endurance demands of longer distances while maintaining similar intensity levels.
Details: Accurate race time prediction helps runners set appropriate pace goals, plan training programs, and avoid starting too fast in longer races.
Tips: Enter your current 5k time in minutes (e.g., 22.5 for 22 minutes and 30 seconds). Use a recent race time for most accurate prediction.
Q1: How accurate is this prediction?
A: It provides a reasonable estimate for runners with balanced speed and endurance. Those stronger in endurance may do slightly better, while speed-focused runners may find it challenging.
Q2: Does this account for training differences?
A: No, it assumes you've done equivalent training for both distances. More half marathon-specific training may improve your actual time.
Q3: Can I use a treadmill 5k time?
A: For best results, use an outdoor race time as treadmill running often produces slightly different performance.
Q4: What if my 5k time is very fast or slow?
A: Extremely fast runners may find the prediction slightly optimistic, while slower runners might beat the prediction as endurance becomes more dominant.
Q5: How should I use this prediction?
A: Use it as a guideline for pacing, but adjust based on course difficulty, weather conditions, and your specific strengths.