1. What is Expected Value in Betting?

Expected Value (EV) is a key concept in sports betting that represents the average amount a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet if the same bet is placed multiple times. A positive EV indicates a profitable bet in the long run.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the Expected Value equation:

Where:

• \( P_{win} \) — Probability of winning (decimal)
• \( Profit_{win} \) — Potential profit if the bet wins
• \( P_{loss} \) — Probability of losing (decimal)
• \( Stake \) — Amount wagered

Explanation: The equation calculates the average expected profit (or loss) per bet by considering all possible outcomes and their probabilities.

3. Importance of EV Calculation

Details: Calculating EV helps bettors make informed decisions by identifying bets that are mathematically profitable in the long run, regardless of short-term outcomes.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter win probability (0-1), potential profit if win, loss probability (0-1), and stake amount. All probabilities should sum to ≤1 (accounting for push/tie probability).

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What is a good EV for betting?
A: Generally, positive EV bets are desirable. The higher the positive EV, the better the expected long-term profitability.

Q2: How do I determine fair win probability?
A: Fair probabilities can be derived from odds or through statistical modeling. Many bettors use their own models or compare multiple bookmaker odds.

Q3: What if my probabilities don't sum to 1?
A: The difference represents the probability of a push/tie. The calculator still works correctly as it only considers win/loss scenarios.

Q4: Can I use this for arbitrage betting?
A: Yes, arbitrage opportunities will show positive EV when the sum of probabilities across all outcomes is less than 1.

Q5: How does this relate to Kelly Criterion?
A: EV is an input for Kelly Criterion, which determines optimal bet sizing based on both edge (EV) and odds.