1. What is Predicted EV?

Predicted EV (Expected Value) is a statistical concept that calculates the average outcome if a bet were to be placed multiple times. It helps bettors make mathematically sound decisions by quantifying the long-term value of a wager.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the Predicted EV equation:

Where:

• \( \text{Estimated win prob} \) — Your estimated probability of winning (0 to 1)
• \( \text{Profit} \) — Potential profit if the bet wins ($)
• \( \text{Stake} \) — Amount wagered ($)

Explanation: Positive EV indicates a potentially profitable bet long-term, while negative EV suggests the bet is unfavorable.

3. Importance of EV Calculation

Details: Calculating EV helps bettors make objective decisions rather than relying on gut feelings. Consistently making +EV bets is key to long-term profitability in sports betting.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter your estimated win probability (0-1), potential profit in dollars, and stake amount. All values must be valid (probability between 0-1, monetary values ≥0).

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What's considered a good EV?
A: Generally, +EV bets are good, with higher positive values being better. Professional bettors often look for +EV of at least 5%.

Q2: How accurate does the win probability need to be?
A: The more accurate your probability estimate, the more reliable the EV calculation. Use statistical models or thorough analysis for best results.

Q3: Should I only make +EV bets?
A: While +EV bets are mathematically favorable, bankroll management and other factors should also be considered in your betting strategy.

Q4: How does this differ from traditional odds?
A: EV calculation incorporates both the probability and the payout structure, giving a more complete picture than odds alone.

Q5: Can EV be used for other types of betting?
A: Yes, the EV concept applies to all forms of gambling and even financial investments where probabilistic outcomes exist.