Esc Hcm Risk Score Calculator

ESC HCM Risk Score Equation:

\[ Probability (\%) = 1 - 0.998^{\exp(Prognostic\ Index)} \] \[ Prognostic\ Index = 0.15939858 \times MWT - 0.00294271 \times MWT^2 + 0.0259082 \times LAS + 0.00446131 \times MLVOTG + 0.4583082 \times FHSCD + 0.82639195 \times NSVT + 0.71650361 \times US - 0.01799918 \times Age \]

Maximum Wall Thickness (MWT):

Left Atrial Size (LAS):

Maximum LVOT Gradient (MLVOTG):

mm Hg

Family History of SCD (FHSCD):

Non-Sustained VT (NSVT):

Unexplained Syncope (US):

Age:

years

5-Year Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death:

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1. What is the ESC HCM Risk Score?

The ESC HCM Risk Score is a validated model for predicting the 5-year risk of sudden cardiac death in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). It incorporates seven clinical variables to provide individualized risk assessment.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the ESC HCM Risk Score equation:

Where:

\( MWT \) — Maximum wall thickness (mm)
\( LAS \) — Left atrial size (mm)
\( MLVOTG \) — Maximum LVOT gradient (mm Hg)
\( FHSCD \) — Family history of sudden cardiac death (0 or 1)
\( NSVT \) — Non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (0 or 1)
\( US \) — Unexplained syncope (0 or 1)
\( Age \) — Age in years

Explanation: The equation calculates a prognostic index that is then converted to a percentage risk using an exponential function.

3. Importance of Risk Calculation

Details: Accurate risk stratification is crucial for determining which HCM patients may benefit from implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter all required measurements from echocardiography and clinical history. MWT and LAS should be in mm, MLVOTG in mm Hg. Binary variables (FHSCD, NSVT, US) should be coded as 1 for present or 0 for absent.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What is considered a high risk score?
A: Generally, ≥6% 5-year risk is considered high enough to warrant consideration of ICD implantation, though clinical judgment is always required.

Q2: How accurate is this risk score?
A: The score was validated in a large international cohort with good discrimination (C-statistic 0.70), but should be used in conjunction with clinical assessment.

Q3: Can this be used for pediatric patients?
A: The score was developed and validated in adults (≥16 years) and should not be used for pediatric HCM patients.

Q4: What if some parameters are missing?
A: The score requires all parameters for accurate calculation. Incomplete data should prompt consideration of alternative risk assessment methods.

Q5: How often should risk be reassessed?
A: Annual reassessment is recommended, or when new clinical events occur or there are significant changes in echocardiographic parameters.