1. What is Expected Value in Betting?

Expected Value (EV) is a mathematical concept that represents the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet if you were to place the same bet multiple times. A positive EV indicates a profitable bet in the long run.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the EV formula:

Where:

• \( Win\ prob \) — Your estimated probability of winning (0 to 1)
• \( Odds \) — Bookmaker's decimal odds
• \( Stake \) — Amount wagered in dollars

Explanation: The first part calculates potential winnings, the second part calculates potential losses, and the difference gives the expected value.

3. Importance of EV Calculation

Details: Calculating EV helps bettors identify value bets where the probability of winning is higher than what the odds imply. Consistently finding positive EV bets is key to long-term profitability.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter your estimated win probability (0-1), the bookmaker's decimal odds (≥1), and your stake amount. All values must be positive numbers.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What does a positive EV mean?
A: A positive EV means the bet is theoretically profitable in the long run. The higher the EV, the better the value.

Q2: How accurate do my probability estimates need to be?
A: The more accurate your probability estimates, the more reliable the EV calculation. Professional bettors spend significant time refining their models.

Q3: Should I only take positive EV bets?
A: While positive EV bets are ideal, bankroll management and variance must also be considered. Even +EV bets can lose in the short term.

Q4: How does this compare to the Kelly Criterion?
A: EV tells you if a bet is good, while Kelly tells you how much to bet based on your edge and bankroll.

Q5: Can I use this for sports betting?
A: Yes, this applies to all forms of betting where you can estimate probabilities and know the odds.