EV Calculator For Sports Betting

Expected Value Formula:

\[ EV (\$) = (Win\ Probability \times Profit (\$)) - (Loss\ Probability \times Stake (\$)) \]

Win Probability (decimal):

Profit ($):

Loss Probability (decimal):

Stake ($):

Expected Value (EV):

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1. What is Expected Value in Sports Betting?

Expected Value (EV) is a mathematical concept that represents the average amount a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet if the same bet is placed multiple times. A positive EV indicates a profitable bet in the long run, while a negative EV suggests a losing proposition.

2. How Does the EV Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the Expected Value formula:

\[ EV (\$) = (Win\ Probability \times Profit (\$)) - (Loss\ Probability \times Stake (\$)) \]

Where:

$ Win\ Probability $ — Your estimated chance of winning (0 to 1)
$ Profit $ — Potential profit if the bet wins
$ Loss\ Probability $ — Chance of losing the bet (0 to 1)
$ Stake $ — Amount risked on the bet

Explanation: The equation calculates the average outcome per bet if the same wager were made repeatedly under the same conditions.

3. Importance of EV Calculation

Details: Calculating EV helps bettors make mathematically sound decisions by identifying bets that offer positive expected value over time, which is crucial for long-term profitability in sports betting.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter win probability (as decimal between 0-1), potential profit in dollars, loss probability, and stake amount. Win and loss probabilities should sum to 1 or less (accounting for pushes/ties).

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What does a positive EV mean?
A: A positive EV indicates that the bet is expected to be profitable in the long run if repeated under the same conditions.

Q2: How accurate does my probability estimate need to be?
A: The more accurate your probability estimates, the more reliable the EV calculation. Sharp bettors develop models to estimate true probabilities.

Q3: Should I only make +EV bets?
A: While +EV bets are ideal, practical considerations like bankroll management and bet sizing also matter for long-term success.

Q4: How does this account for pushes/ties?
A: If there's a chance of a push, make sure win_prob + loss_prob ≤ 1. The remaining probability is the chance of a push.

Q5: Can EV be used for parlays or other bet types?
A: Yes, the concept applies to all bet types, though calculating probabilities for complex bets can be challenging.