EV Calculator OddsJam Fantasy Football

Expected Value Equation:

\[ EV (\$) = (Win\ probability \times Profit\ if\ win (\$)) - (Loss\ probability \times Stake (\$)) \]

Win Probability (decimal):

Profit if Win ($):

Loss Probability (decimal):

Stake ($):

Expected Value (EV):

Unit Converter ▲

Unit Converter ▼

From:	To:

1. What is Expected Value in Fantasy Football?

Expected Value (EV) is a key concept in fantasy football betting that helps determine whether a bet is likely to be profitable in the long run. It considers both the probability of winning and the potential payout.

2. How Does the EV Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the Expected Value equation:

\[ EV (\$) = (Win\ probability \times Profit\ if\ win (\$)) - (Loss\ probability \times Stake (\$)) \]

Where:

$ Win\ probability $ — Probability of winning the bet (0 to 1)
$ Profit\ if\ win $ — Potential profit if the bet wins ($)
$ Loss\ probability $ — Probability of losing the bet (0 to 1)
$ Stake $ — Amount risked on the bet ($)

Interpretation: A positive EV indicates a potentially profitable bet, while negative EV suggests the bet is unfavorable in the long run.

3. Importance of EV Calculation

Details: Calculating EV helps fantasy football players make data-driven decisions, identify value bets, and maintain long-term profitability in daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter win probability as a decimal (e.g., 0.55 for 55%), profit if win in dollars, loss probability as a decimal, and stake amount in dollars. Ensure probabilities sum to 1 or less.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What's considered a good EV?
A: Generally, positive EV is good. The higher the positive value, the more favorable the bet. Many pros look for +EV of at least 5-10% of the stake.

Q2: How do I estimate win probability?
A: Use statistical models, historical data, or odds converter tools. Many fantasy platforms provide implied probabilities from betting odds.

Q3: Should I only take +EV bets?
A: While +EV is ideal, bankroll management and variance should also be considered. Some +EV bets may have high variance.

Q4: How does this relate to bankroll management?
A: Even with +EV bets, proper stake sizing is crucial to survive variance. Many use the Kelly Criterion or fractional bankroll strategies.

Q5: Can I use this for other sports betting?
A: Yes, the EV concept applies to all forms of betting, though the probability estimation methods may vary by sport.