EV Calculator Sports Betting Odds

Expected Value Formula:

\[ EV (\$) = (Implied\ no-vig\ prob \times (Odds - 1) \times Stake (\$)) - ((1 - Implied\ no-vig\ prob) \times Stake (\$)) \]

EV ($):

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1. What is Expected Value in Sports Betting?

Expected Value (EV) in sports betting represents the average amount a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet if they were to place the same bet multiple times. A positive EV indicates a potentially profitable bet in the long run.

2. How Does the EV Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the EV formula:

\[ EV (\$) = (Implied\ no-vig\ prob \times (Odds - 1) \times Stake (\$)) - ((1 - Implied\ no-vig\ prob) \times Stake (\$)) \]

Where:

$ Implied\ no-vig\ prob $ — The true probability of the outcome (0 to 1)
$ Odds $ — The decimal odds offered by the sportsbook
$ Stake $ — The amount wagered in dollars

Explanation: The equation calculates the expected profit by considering both the potential win and the potential loss, weighted by their respective probabilities.

3. Importance of EV Calculation

Details: Calculating EV helps bettors identify value bets where the probability of an outcome is higher than what the sportsbook's odds imply. Consistently finding positive EV bets is key to long-term profitability.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter the true probability (0-1), decimal odds (≥1), and stake amount. All values must be positive numbers. The calculator will show the expected value in dollars.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What does a positive EV mean?
A: A positive EV means the bet is expected to be profitable in the long run if your probability estimate is accurate.

Q2: How do I find the implied no-vig probability?
A: This is your estimate of the true probability after removing the bookmaker's margin (vig). It requires careful analysis and often differs from the sportsbook's implied probability.

Q3: Is positive EV a guarantee of winning?
A: No, it only indicates long-term expectation. Short-term results can vary due to variance.

Q4: How accurate does my probability estimate need to be?
A: The more accurate your probability estimate, the more reliable the EV calculation. Small errors in probability can significantly impact EV.

Q5: Should I only bet when EV is positive?
A: For long-term profitability, yes. However, bankroll management and other factors should also be considered.