1. What is Expected Value in Sports Betting?

Expected Value (EV) is a key concept in sports betting that represents the average amount a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet if the same bet is placed multiple times. A positive EV indicates a potentially profitable bet in the long run.

2. How Does the EV Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the Expected Value formula:

Where:

• \( Estimated\ win\ prob \) — Your estimated probability of winning (0 to 1)
• \( Profit\ if\ win \) — Potential profit if the bet wins (in $)
• \( Loss\ prob \) — Probability of losing the bet (0 to 1)
• \( Stake \) — Amount wagered (in $)

Explanation: The equation calculates the long-term average outcome per bet, accounting for both winning and losing scenarios.

3. Importance of EV Calculation

Details: Calculating EV helps bettors identify value bets where the potential reward outweighs the risk. Consistently making positive EV bets is key to long-term profitability in sports betting.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter your estimated win probability (as decimal between 0-1), potential profit if you win, loss probability, and stake amount. All values must be non-negative.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What does a positive EV mean?
A: A positive EV indicates that the bet is theoretically profitable in the long run. The higher the positive value, the better the bet.

Q2: How accurate does my win probability need to be?
A: The more accurate your probability estimate, the more reliable the EV calculation. This requires thorough analysis of the matchup.

Q3: What's considered a good EV?
A: Any positive EV is good, but experienced bettors often look for EV of at least 5-10% of the stake.

Q4: Should I only make positive EV bets?
A: While positive EV bets are ideal, sometimes small negative EV bets might be acceptable for hedging strategies.

Q5: How does this relate to odds?
A: The implied probability from betting odds can be compared to your estimated probability to find EV opportunities.