1. What is Expected Value in Sports Betting?

Expected Value (EV) in sports betting represents the average amount a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet if the same bet is placed multiple times. A positive EV indicates a profitable bet in the long run, while negative EV suggests a losing proposition.

2. How Does the EV Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the Expected Value equation:

Where:

• \( Fair\ win\ prob \) — Your calculated probability of winning (0 to 1)
• \( Profit\ (\$) \) — Potential profit if the bet wins
• \( Fair\ loss\ prob \) — Probability of losing the bet (0 to 1)
• \( Stake\ (\$) \) — Amount wagered on the bet

Explanation: The equation compares the potential gains weighted by their probability against the potential losses weighted by their probability.

3. Importance of EV Calculation

Details: Calculating EV helps bettors identify +EV opportunities where the sportsbook's odds are mispriced relative to the true probabilities. Consistently finding +EV bets is key to long-term profitability.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter your estimated fair win probability (not the implied probability from the odds), potential profit, loss probability, and stake amount. All probabilities must be between 0 and 1, and sum to 1 or less.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What constitutes a "good" EV?
A: Generally, +EV bets are good, but the higher the positive value, the better. Professional bettors often look for EV of +5% or more.

Q2: How do I determine fair probabilities?
A: This requires your own analysis or models. It can be based on statistical models, historical data, or expert knowledge of the sport.

Q3: Does EV guarantee short-term results?
A: No, EV is about long-term expectation. Short-term results can vary due to variance and luck.

Q4: Should I only bet when EV is positive?
A: For long-term profit, yes. Recreational bettors might accept negative EV for entertainment value.

Q5: How does this apply to different sportsbooks?
A: EV calculations should be done per sportsbook as odds and lines vary. Shopping for the best lines across sites increases EV.