1. What is Expected Value in Betting?

Expected Value (EV) is a statistical concept that represents the average outcome if a bet were to be placed multiple times. A positive EV indicates a profitable bet in the long run, while negative EV suggests a losing proposition.

2. How Does the EV Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the Expected Value formula:

Where:

• \( Win\ Probability \) — Chance of winning the bet (0-1)
• \( Profit \) — Potential profit if the bet wins ($)
• \( Loss\ Probability \) — Chance of losing the bet (0-1)
• \( Stake \) — Amount risked on the bet ($)

Explanation: The equation calculates the average amount you can expect to win (or lose) per bet if you were to make the same bet repeatedly.

3. Importance of EV Calculation

Details: Calculating EV helps professional bettors identify value bets where the potential reward outweighs the risk. Consistently making +EV bets is key to long-term profitability.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter win probability (as decimal between 0-1), potential profit, loss probability, and stake amount. Win and loss probabilities should sum to ≤1 (remaining is push probability).

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What's considered a good EV?
A: Any positive EV is theoretically good. Professional bettors typically look for +EV of at least 2-5% of the stake.

Q2: How do I estimate win probability?
A: Use statistical models, compare odds across bookmakers, or use historical data. This is the most challenging part of EV calculation.

Q3: Should I always take +EV bets?
A: While +EV bets are mathematically favorable, consider bankroll management and variance before placing large bets.

Q4: What if win + loss probabilities don't sum to 1?
A: The remaining probability is assumed to be pushes (ties) which have $0 outcome in this calculation.

Q5: How does this apply to different bet types?
A: The same principle applies to all bet types (moneyline, spread, totals) - just adjust probabilities and payouts accordingly.